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We are nearing the end of what seemed like a never ending two-week wait for Super Bowl LI. This Sunday, Feb. 5, the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons will take the field at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.

The obvious question as time ticks down to kickoff is, “Which team is going to win the game?” That question has been a tough answer to find as I’ve dug through the statistics of each team.

New England has the best defense on paper, but Atlanta’s defense is better than its ranking and has been battled tested against the league’s top offenses. The Patriots’ defense feasted on weaker offenses in the regular season but is still a tough unit.

Both teams feature high-powered offenses that can put up plenty of points, so the key for both defenses will be stopping the opposing quarterback.

For teams wanting to beat the Patriots, the formula has been simple: Get pressure on quarterback Tom Brady and let the hits add up as the game goes along.

The New York Giants used that formula to beat New England in two Super Bowls, and other teams, such as the Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens, have found success against the Patriots using the same game plan.

In Super Bowl XLIX, the Seattle Seahawks nearly rode that strategy to a win until a Patriots cornerback Malcolm Butler made an interception and sealed the game for New England. Seattle was able to hit Brady seven times in that Super Bowl.

The Denver Broncos hit Brady 17 times on its way to Super Bowl 50 and kept right on attacking quarterbacks when they played against the Carolina Panthers for the championship. So will that game plan hold up this time?

Looking back at the regular-season games, New England won five times in instances where Brady got pressured more than other team’s quarterback. In one of the two Patriots losses, Brady didn’t play, and in the other, Seattle hit Brady five times, but the Patriots got to Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson four times.

In the playoffs, both the Houston Texans and the Pittsburgh Steelers were able to get to Brady more than the Patriots’ defense got to their quarterbacks. New England won both games anyway, including one matchup during which the Texans hit Brady eight times.

Teams have been able to get pressure on Brady, but it’s what happens in the secondary that is most important. Opponents haven’t held up in coverage until the pass rush gets to Brady.

Atlanta, on the other hand, has struggled when teams pressure quarterback Matt Ryan. Four of the Falcons’ five losses have come from games in which the Atlanta defense hit their opponents’ quarterback fewer times than the opposing team hit Ryan.

Seattle had 13 hits on Ryan to the Falcons’ five hits, the San Diego Chargers had nine hits to the Falcons’ six, the Philadelphia Eagles had six hits to the Falcons’ three, and the Kansas City Chiefs had 10 hits to the Falcons’ one. The lone exception in the regular season was a loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who had four hits to Atlanta’s six hits, but the Falcons lost anyway.

In the playoffs, Atlanta beat Seattle even though the Seahawks hit Ryan eight time compared to the seven hits that the Falcons managed on Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson. Atlanta won five games in the regular season when they gave up more quarterback hits then they got as a team.

New England was an even split, averaging five quarterback hits on defense and giving up five quarterback hits on offense. In just two playoff games, opponents have hit Brady 11 times, while New England has only hit seven quarterback on defense.

The Falcons got five quarterback hits per game on defense but gave up seven per game on offense. Atlanta has laid on more pressure in two playoff games, with eight quarterback hits per game, but also gave up more quarterback hits on offense at eight per game.

It seems likely that the team that can disrupt the opposing offense more has the best chance of winning the game. New England has the ability to play better pass coverage than Atlanta, even if they don’t get home to the quarterback.

If Atlanta can’t get pressure on Brady and has to start blitzing, New England will have a major advantage. There might not be another quarterback in the league that can make a defense pay for blitzing him more than Brady does.

The Patriots won’t have to blitz if their pass coverage can hold up against the Falcons. New England will start to bring pressure if they can’t cover Atlanta's receivers.

It wouldn’t be surprising if the Patriots let the Falcons’ star wide receiver, Julio Jones, get his targets but shut down the role receivers and rushing attack of Atlanta. Jones and Ryan are a great combo, but it is hard for just two players to carry a whole offense.

Atlanta, on the other hand, can’t focus on just one player for the Patriots. New England spreads the ball around to nearly every offensive weapon and can change offensive styles to fit what a defense will give them.

One thing is certain: When the Patriots are in a Super Bowl, it will always be a close game. New England went to six other Super Bowls in the Brady-Belichick era, and the average margin of victory is just three points.

New England has given up more than 24 points only once in a Brady-Belichick Super Bowl, that was to the Carolina Panthers who scored 29 points, also from the NFC South. Expect a low scoring game as both teams have defensive minded head coaches and two week to prepare.

Prediction:

Patriots 24, Falcons 20