Ellington

ESPN talking heads are fond of the phrase "Suck for Luck," shorthand for the idea that NFL teams would tank games to draft Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck.

Luck is the highest rated quarterback right now, according to nearly every college and pro analyst. Just turn your television to a broadcast or pregame show, and you will hear how great he is.

Personally, I have no problem with any team wanting to draft Luck. I have seen him play a few times, and he is as good as advertised—for the most part. I think he is a little over hyped. I do have a problem with teams tanking their season to draft Luck, because you simply get no guarantees when you draft any player.

Since 2000, teams have taken 31 quarterbacks in the first round. Most of those 31 were busts or are no longer with their original team. People will scream, but Andrew Luck will be the first pick of the draft. Your sample size is too large.

OK. Why don't we look at just look at quarterbacks taken on the first draft pick since 2000: Michael Vick (2001), David Carr (2002), Carson Palmer (2003), Eli Manning (2004), Alex Smith (2005), JaMarcus Russell (2007) and Matthew Stafford (2009). I excluded Sam Bradford (2010) and Cam Newton (2011) because there is just is not a sample size large enough to make a decision on their careers.

Take a look at that list again. Vick, Carr and Palmer are no longer with the team that drafted them. Those three have never reached the Super Bowl, either. Russell is no longer in the NFL after battling weight issues among other things. Smith became a game manager in San Francisco but will not win a ton of games with his arm. Stafford is finally living up to what everyone thought he would be when healthy. Manning was traded on draft day but is the only quarterback on this list to win a Super Bowl.

My point being: "Sucking for Luck" is not a great idea with too many examples of highly drafted quarterbacks becoming busts.

In case you are wondering, the last quarterback besides Manning to win a Super Bowl who was also drafted on the first pick is Peyton Manning (1998). Before Peyton, you have to go back to 1989 and Troy Aikman.