Ellington

I just saw a report that 30 percent of vice presidents have become president. Gulp. This is what Roger Cohen of the New York Times says about the odds:

I know one thing: this is no time for further gambling. John McCain rolled the dice on Sarah Palin. I'm grateful to Bob Rice of Tangent Capital for pointing out that the actuarial risk, based on mortality tables, of Palin becoming president if the Republican ticket wins the election is about 1 in 6 or 7.

That's the same odds as your birthday falling on a Wednesday, or being delayed on two consecutive flights into Newark airport. Is America ready for that?

The lesson of the last eight years is this: when power is a passport to gamble, people can end up seriously broke or seriously dead.