Ellington

AP is reporting: "Republicans have a lot to worry about; hence the reason Bush has been on the defense, says national pollster Mark Schulman."

MORE: "No. 1 is the credibility issue," said Schulman, who is not affiliated with any political candidate. "A lot of poll numbers from a lot of different organizations are finding that people are questioning credibility."

Historically, at this point before an election, an incumbent president leads in any kind of hypothetical horse race with a Democratic opponent, he said. Currently Bush is, at best, "dead even" with Sen. John Kerry, the Democratic front-runner, he said.

Credibility was thought to be a strong suit for Bush during the last campaign when he was portrayed as a straight-talking candidate. Now, polls show his approval ratings are dipping. Despite favorable economic news, voters still aren't convinced jobs will rebound, and the situation in Iraq is a "wild card," Schulman said. Bush's job approval rating, which was in the 60s and high 50s for most of last year, now is hovering in the high 40s to low 50s in many polls, including 47 percent in an AP-Ipsos poll last week. An ABC-Washington Post poll this week found that just over half of respondents, 52 percent, viewed him as honest and trustworthy, while 45 percent did not."