Ellington

Alternet is discussing several polls and news articles that seem to indicate that Bush does not have the South all sewn up: "But as the election draws nearer, polling trends show that just isn't the case. The Raleigh News & Observer North Carolina came out with a poll this week showing George Bush ahead by a mere three points, well within the 4% margin of error. ... Witness Rassmussen's poll numbers for Arkansas, where Bush and Kerry are tied at 46%. There's also Virginia, where Bush leads Kerry by three points, 49% to 46%, with a five-point margin of error. Numbers like these rule out the notion that the South is 'Bush country.'" I just think the choice of "red" to indicate conservative states is hilarious. Who came up with that?!

Previous Comments

ID

137086

Comment

Red = Conservative? Probably a Liberal Media Weenie. :D Slightly more seriously, however, He can't count on the South, seeing as how the Republicans seem to keep ignoring it. The South might just go back to the Democrats, who took advantage of it for decades until Regan came along.

Author

Ironghost

Date

2004-08-19T15:54:32-06:00

ID

137087

Comment

Personally, I don't think Bush would have a lock on Mississippi if the Kerry camp would just spend a little in advertising here. I travel the state, and one of my hobbies to stave off the boredom of driving is to keep a mental check on the bumper stickers people are sporting. On a daily basis the Bush stickers almost always outnumber the Kerry stickers, but there is definitely a drop in the numbers since the last election. Even during my four "drive through" tours of the Madison Winn-Dixie and Kroger parking lots, I have only spotted two Bush stickers. Last election there would have been more than twenty! I didn't see any Kerry stickers, but it could be that other folks are as scared as I am to put one on their car. Some of those Neocons are rabid! Thanks, Rico

Author

Rico

Date

2004-08-19T23:09:58-06:00

ID

137088

Comment

Oh, I'll agree that both sides seem to sprout rabid believers quicker than anything. I've seen a few Kerry stickers around, however. But in a way I'm happy they don't spend millions here. I've heard from friends in Ohio, Florida and other states that the ad campaigns are just ridiculous. I'm glad we get to skip that, and if I have my choice I think I like it this way. :)

Author

Ironghost

Date

2004-08-20T06:47:45-06:00

ID

137089

Comment

I'd give Louisiana and Arkansas a good chance of going for Kerry. Bush's lead there in 2000 was pretty slim (although I personally don't know anyone there who is Democrat) Louisiana is up for grabs too. For starters, the state went for Clinton in both 92 and 96, though it went for Bush in 2000. They also have a U.S. Senate race as well - an open seat now that the VERY popular Sen. John Breaux is retiring. This time, the Democrat is the moderate candidate Chris John from "Acadiana" (SW La. plus the Houma area). His opponent is conservative Republican David Vitter. Since Acadiana is the major swing area of the state, I think John's candidacy will likely help Kerry. My current prediction: Louisiana's 9 electoral votes will go to Kerry by a small margin. If this happens, Bush will be in trouble, since, in current electoral vote terms, the 2000 Red States = 278 EVs. Furthermore, consider that Louisiana has picked the winner in EVERY Presidential election from 1972 onward. Long-term prediction for Texas: Bush will take Texas this time, no question. But in the long term, the growing Hispanic population, combined with the maturation of the major urban areas (in terms of how long they've been major metros/cities), will likely tell against the Republicans (for reasons similar to why formerly Republican California changed). If that happens, expect Georgia and Virginia to go the same way too.

Author

Philip

Date

2004-08-20T07:58:17-06:00

ID

137090

Comment

I'm registered in Louisiana, and had considered changing my voting registration over to Mississippi, but I think that my vote probably has a better chance of counting over there. Don't forget that LA just voted in a Dem FEMALE governor last fall.

Author

casey

Date

2004-08-20T09:35:15-06:00

ID

137091

Comment

You get the feeling people over there are a little less afraid of being Democrats (or non-conservatives, to be more succinct) than they are here in this beaten-down state. But that seems to be changing rapidly. And Louisiana has Donna Brazile, as you recall. She didn't get Gore elected, but she seems to know how to harness votes in her home state.

Author

DonnaLadd

Date

2004-08-20T09:44:21-06:00

ID

137092

Comment

Donna: You get the feeling people over there are a little less afraid of being Democrats (or non-conservatives, to be more succinct) than they are here in this beaten-down state. But that seems to be changing rapidly. Philip: It depends on where you are in the state. La. is highly regionalized, both politically and culturally. New Orleans, of course, is liberal. Acadiana is a toss-up. The rest of the state is just like Mississippi (take it from a NE La native). Casey: Don't forget that LA just voted in a Dem FEMALE governor last fall. Philip: It pains me to say it, but I attribute her victory to xenophobia as anything (The Republican candidate was a male Indian-American). My mom overheard a ìgood-ole boyî type ranting about the prospect of a ìforeignî governor. The Republican lost almost every rural North Louisiana parish ñ the arch-conservative area of the state. However, VERY conservative Ouachita Parish (Monroe) and the wealthier areas of Ruston (the Starkville of the area, 30 miles to the west) went for the Republican. I suspect most of the mid-to-higher income whites in the state went for the Indian-American as well (regardless of urban-rural locale). The New England Democrat will still have to push hard to win Mississippiís southwestern neighbor.

Author

Philip

Date

2004-08-20T10:41:32-06:00

ID

137093

Comment

oh, philip, i know. i've lived in monroe, new orleans and alexandria.. i'm pretty well versed in my louisiana politics. monroe is about the most republican place i've ever been.

Author

casey

Date

2004-08-20T11:56:50-06:00

ID

137094

Comment

I am not, however, well-versed on Louisiana a-tall. It was mere flippant theorizing on my part. Glad y'all are here. ;-)

Author

DonnaLadd

Date

2004-08-20T12:05:46-06:00

ID

137095

Comment

Since this is about the SOUTH...what about Georgia and other states we haven't mentioned yet? Any comments/opinions about future trends in those areas?

Author

Philip

Date

2004-08-20T13:04:28-06:00

ID

137096

Comment

i lived in savannah for quite some time.. it's an interesting melange of liberal college art students and old people who have settled down for retirement. there is also a strong military base fairly close, which tends to be more right-wingy

Author

casey

Date

2004-08-20T14:40:41-06:00

ID

137097

Comment

I'm driving to Atlanta on Monday, so I will be doing my admittedly unscientific bumper sticker survey. Good things seem to be happening all around us though...

Author

Rico

Date

2004-08-20T17:26:12-06:00

ID

137098

Comment

My only concern about electing another president, is the thing I mentioned first: Will anything change, really?

Author

Ironghost

Date

2004-08-20T18:32:06-06:00

ID

137099

Comment

As I often say I'm not Kerry's biggest fan, not to mention the DLC's, but my take is that the pendulum has swung so far right under Bush that even if Kerry bring it back somewhere near the center we're better off. And, yes, I admit that's not showing the excitement that I'd like to show over a candidate, but Bush poses serious, serious threats to freedom, not to mention our place in the world and the economy and the poor and so on, and it will only get worse if he is there for four more years without threat of re-election. I think it is undoubtedly clear that Kerry will not take us even further right than we are now, and will in fact help recoup some moderation at the very least. And that's vital. Certainly, as well, dumping that asinine tax cut for the rich is just an obvious step in the right direction, as deficits explode all around us, saddling young people with debt for years to come. (Remember the days when Republicans used to think that "balanced budgets" were a good idea!?) I'd also posit that if a coalition of progressives, moderate and more liberal, come together, as they are now, to elect Kerry that he can't just ignore that and maintain Bush's status quo -- especially if *he* wants to be re-elected. The future is very dark under Bush; at least there is potential and the "audacity of hope" under Kerry. And, in fact, I should be fair enough to him to say that his DNC speech actually excited me a bit. I'm more hopeful than I was before about him. It's really quite a stretch to argue that nothing would change under a Kerry adminstration when this administration is so radically extreme. Simply losing the wingnut extremism would change things.

Author

DonnaLadd

Date

2004-08-20T18:42:39-06:00

ID

137100

Comment

One thing about the South: I think this year it would be a grave error to assume that military families in the South are going whole-hog for Bush. Many are very pissed off, and for good reason. Their children are dying in a bad war, and their benefits are being cut at home to benefit the rich, and by someone who avoided war. These people aren't idiots. They have given the greatest gift a family can give their country, and what are they getting in return?

Author

DonnaLadd

Date

2004-08-20T18:45:18-06:00

ID

137101

Comment

Out here in Dallas, it's pretty simple. On the north side outside 635 (the city's beltway), the bumper stickers are virtually ALL Bush. Inside 635 (where I live), it's about 50-50 Kerry Bush. And this is a pretty conservative metro area for it's size!! (but not too conservative though, big metros will be big metros). I suspect Rico will see similar results in Atlanta.

Author

Philip

Date

2004-08-21T06:40:11-06:00

ID

137102

Comment

Pretty sure that you are right Phillip, though Atlanta surprises me sometimes. In July, I found myself sitting in a bar next to Kerry supporters two nights in a row. This was at the Westin in downtown Atlanta, and admittedly they weren't from there, but still... I spend quite a few hours at hotel bars around the south, and this was a first for me. Most of the time I have to endure endless Kerry jokes.

Author

Rico

Date

2004-08-21T16:56:57-06:00

ID

137103

Comment

I keep getting the impression that it breaks into thirds. One third will go kerry, regardless. Another third will go bush, regardless. The other third is looking at this election as a choice between Hastur or Cuthulu. I'm really not enthused about another Bush term, cause I feel he's let down many moderate Republicans and mistaken his election for a vote for his policies. Then there's Kerry and I'm back to that "Gee... is Hastur that bad after all? I dunno..."

Author

Ironghost

Date

2004-08-22T11:09:33-06:00

ID

137104

Comment

I'm not particularly enthused about any candidate either. But after the last election, I am just interested in trying to push things to the left a little bit at a time. There are no illusions here that Kerry will be any more effective than Clinton at "saving the world". I am sure that if elected, his entire term will be spent enduring and defending himself from attacks by the neocons. Hopefully, at some point in time everyone will just get sick of it and maybe then we can look at alternative sources for candidates...

Author

Rico

Date

2004-08-22T13:09:07-06:00

ID

137105

Comment

This little tidbit must be relevant, somehow, when it comes to a discusison of the Peach State (from AP): "Sen. Zell Miller of Georgia, a Democrat who long ago endorsed President Bush for re-election, will deliver the keynote address at the Republican National Convention, party officials announced Thursday."

Author

DonnaLadd

Date

2004-08-22T14:07:23-06:00

ID

137106

Comment

I would appreciate information on how to start a subject. Surely we all don't just have to comment on others' topics. Meantime - here's an August 18 news release that hasn't been published by any of the Jackson-area weeklies or the Clarion-Ledger, as far as I know. COMMUNITY-MINDED CANDIDATES NEEDED TO RUN FOR ELECTION COMMISSIONS on NOVEMBER 2 Stressing the importance of having community-minded election commissioners throughout Mississippi, Jackson activist Jan Hillegas announced her candidacy this week for Supervisor District 5 Election Commissioner in Hinds County. "One commissioner can speak up for open meetings and be personally accountable, but a majority is needed to be sure election commissions do their job as well as possible. So now's the time for good candidates to come forward, get 50 signatures on petitions, and turn in certified petitions by Friday, September 3," she said. There are 5 election commissioners per county, one for each Supervisor's District. The Secretary of State's web site, www.sos.state.ms.us, and Elections Hotline at 1-800-829-6786 have all the details and forms needed to get started, Hillegas said, and circuit clerks and election commissioners can provide a map of all the precincts in the district. As a human rights and peace activist, Hillegas has become familiar with election procedures in Hinds and other counties as a poll watcher for numerous candidates and as an active member of the Hinds County Democratic Executive Committee from 1992-2000. She was a founding member of the Green Party of Mississippi, which gained ballot status in April 2002, and serves on its State Executive Committee. Her campaign will emphasize the need for publicized and open Commission meetings, clean elections, machine cross-checks, accurate voting lists, and community education and feedback meetings. "It's important for voters to be registered at the address where they now live," Hillegas said. "New voters and those who need to update their address have through September to register to vote for President, Congress, judge and Election Commissioner on November 2." Jan Hillegas - 352-3398

Author

Jan Hillegas

Date

2004-08-26T19:39:14-06:00

ID

137107

Comment

Jan, currently readers can't start new subjects here. As a media outlet, ethically and legally we have to monitor what's posted on our site for libel, copyright infringement and the like, so we have to keep it manageable. However, we are working on a forum that will allow readers more freedom to start topics. Keep an eye out. Re your press release: The JFP does not run press releases, although we allow them to be posted on the blog (as you just did). I believe I saw your release come in last week as this issue was being put together. I put it into the story possibility file; it takes more than a couple days to turn around a story. So you may be hearing from one of our writers soon.

Author

DonnaLadd

Date

2004-08-26T20:13:52-06:00