June 21, 2014
Verbatim release from Chism Strategies:
Last night we conducted the final track of our MS Senate GOP runoff surveys. We surveyed 697 voters statewide. The MOE was +/- 3.8%. The survey was restricted to voters from the GOP primary on June 3rd. It does not include potential voters who did not participate in that election.
McDaniel holds an eight point lead among GOP voters who went to the polls on June 3rd and plan to return on Tuesday.
How We See It
Unless Cochran expands the electorate with general election Republicans and crossover Democrats, McDaniel wins.
The electoral math is much closer than the polling. Cochran heads into Tuesday only about 6,200 votes down out of a total of almost 319,000 cast on June 3rd. (We assume the third candidate’s supporters do not migrate to Cochran.)
No Polling Can Measure the Implications of Two Unprecedented Actions in Mississippi Politics
- Surrogates for the 42 year GOP incumbent are groveling for Democrat and union votes in the runoff after his campaign spent millions in the Primary bashing President Obama and his policies. Can Cochran’s team execute their elaborate, expensive GOTV plan?
- Will this pivot to a more centrist message erode his conservative base? Republican office holders have gotten way out ahead of their constituents. Are the establishment Republicans able to bring the rank and file to Cochran? Will there be a backlash from this top down directive?