0

Jackblog

Poll: Mississippi a 'Tossup State' for Presidential Election

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/50-state-poll/?tid=a_inl">A new Washington Post-Survey Monkey poll paints Mississippi purple, calculating Trump's lead over Hillary Clinton in the state to be only three points, in a four-candidate race. The http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-surveymonkey-50-state-poll/2086/">online-only survey had more than 800 respondents from Mississippi, who are registered voters, and over 74,000 voters in the country. The results put Mississippi in the toss-up category—not a firmly "red" state.

This is a contrast to http://www.jacksonfreepress.com/news/2016/aug/31/polls-voter-turnout-and-winning-mississippi/">previous polls that project Trump will win the state easily, and even http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/mississippi/">FiveThirtyEight still predicts Trump to hold a wide margin, with a 93-percent chance of winning the state.

The survey results show that in a two-way presidential race, Trump would only hold a two-point advantage over Clinton, but a four-candidate race broadens Trump's margins, giving him a three-point advantage over Clinton, with Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson also pulling those votes as well.

http://www.sos.ms.gov/Elections-Voting/Documents/QualifyingForms/2016%20Candidate%20Qualifying.pdf">Mississippi's November 8 election ballot actually has five candidates for president on it: Clinton, Trump, Stein, Johnson and Constitution Party candidate Darrell Castle.

FiveThirtyEight grades WaPo's poll with a "C" grade, but we now know that Mississippi might not be as "red" as some might think, at least among SurveyMonkey internet users.

Last year, the JFP http://www.jacksonfreepress.com/weblogs/politics-blog/2015/jul/15/clinton-takes-mississippi-in-2016-probably-against/">reported on a polling analysis that predicted that Clinton would defeat Trump in Mississippi.

Comments

Use the comment form below to begin a discussion about this content.

Sign in to comment