Ellington

Mississippi will likely experience a re-shuffling of state legislative districts, according 2010 U.S. Census data released this month.

The state's population grew only incrementally between 2000 and 2010 the data revealed. The population only increased by approximately 120,000 people--less than the population of Jackson. The modest growth means the state will not have to engage in a drama-filled battle over creating a new Republican or Democratic-friendly Congressional districts, one such battle cost former Mississippi U.S. Rep. Ronnie Shows, a Democrat, his congressional seat during the 2002 election when the state created a new 3rd Congressional District. He lost that race U.S. Rep Chip Pickering, a Republican.

Local districts could still prove combative for state legislative redistricting. The Senate and House reapportionment subcommittees will each draw its plans, based on more thorough Census information released in February and on public comments the Joint Legislative Committee on Reapportionment and Redistricting gathered over the last two months. Both subcommittees are highly partisan--the House committee only contains one Republican, while the Senate subcommittee contains five Republicans and five Democrats, three of which vote with Republicans on most issues.

Both chambers will pass resolutions that require the approval of the other chamber. After that, both approved plans go to the U.S. Department of Justice for preclearance. The Department of Justice will scour the plans for voter disenfranchisement issues due to the state's history of locking black Mississippians out of the democratic process through voter suppression and other methods.

But Marty Wiseman, the director of Mississippi State University's John C. Stennis Institute of Government, said he does not expect the two plans to pass the chambers without a fight.

"The preliminary numbers from the Census Bureau tells us that there is a continuous drain of population out of the Delta, which is a bastion of Democratic seats in the Legislature, and the growth areas are Desoto County, Rankin, Madison, Lamar, Pearl River, Jones and Forest counties--all Republican stronghold," Wiseman said. "The impact is going to make it an uphill fight for the Democrats to hang onto a sufficient Democratic majority in the House and keep (their presence) even in the Senate. Barbour exercises such influence in the Senate, that I'd bet the Senate will gain more Republican seats, even though Mississippi stays about 37 percent African American."

The Senate could refuse to approve a House plan favoring Democrats, spurring the House to respond in kind to the Senate plan. The case may end up in court, potentially costing many months of fighting and debate.

For more on the legislative redistricting process, read Senator Warns of Hinds District Loss.