Ellington

Friends,
Our public service project has concluded. As you can see below, our numbers were better than the Mason-Dixon poll and better than the Southern Research poll commissioned by the Clarion Ledger. We hope you'll think of Zata|3 the next time you need to gauge public opinion.

All the best, Brad

Candidate 5/2 Zatapulse survey Actual Primary Results

H Johnson 26% 27.6%
Crisler 26% 27.2%
Melton 18% 18.0%
Hohrn 11% 17.6%
Fair 4% 3.7%
Other Candidates 7% 5.9%
Undecided 8% 0.0%
Total 100% 100%

Why we did this: We had several friends in the Jackson Mayor's race but no candidates who were clients. We were intrigued by the dynamics of this race and decided to do some survey work for public dissemination.

About the surveys. These five samples of 500+ voter phone households were rough approximations of historical voter registration and turnout. While we did not track the respondents self-identification by age, race, and gender we did not weighted the survey by these demographics or by voter frequency.

Methodology We used an interactive, automated call with keypad responses to record results. The numbers were scrambled and randomly dialed with a quota of respondents by ward. As the name suggests, our ZATAPULSE takes the pulse of the electorate. It is not an "MRI". It is a useful tool for short surveys of this nature and we have used it for more than 200 races across the country. We employ a similar methodology as Survey USA or Rasmussen.

About Zata3 Zata|3 is a political consulting firm for Democratic candidates and progressive causes. Company President Brad Chism splits time between his Washington, DC and Jackson, MS offices. For each of the last three years, Zata|3 had won more awards by the AAPC for its telephone voter contact programs than any other firm in America. For more information, go to http://www.zata3.com

Brad Chism
202.386.6024 (o)
601.918.4563 (c)
202.318.0332 (f)
http://www.zata3.com

Previous Comments

ID

146851

Comment

Overall a great projection. Did your survey employ cell phone numbers? If not, what was your reasoning? Significant misread of Hohrn's support.

Author

footsy

Date

2009-05-06T06:12:46-06:00

ID

146857

Comment

Actually, it was not that much of significant misread as there was 8% undecided from the poll results. Those 8% could have decided on Horhn when they voted. I wonder: how many of the people who were surveyed actually voted?

Author

chip

Date

2009-05-06T07:42:33-06:00

ID

146862

Comment

Chip, To see 3/4 of undecided to swing to Hohrn is very unlikely - that's highly unlikely, statistically outside the possibilities. While the undecideds might well vote in a pattern different than the decided polled, they will NOT all line up behind one candidate unless there is a late-breaking news story that would in fact also move some of the already-decided voters around. That event didn't happen in this race. What is more likely is that the survey sample did not reflect the voter profile.

Author

footsy

Date

2009-05-06T08:14:03-06:00

ID

146863

Comment

It's not unlikely in this case with Crisler and Johnson being the "known" quotients and Horhn increasing his name ID with ads and such. In the last few days, I know of many people who were undecided and settled on Horhn. It makes complete sense. Clearly, Chism was spot-on with his surveys, and Horhn came on at the end. It just seems impossible to argue, but I'm sure some of his strongest critics are still looking for something, anything to justify their rather-remarkable jihad against him. What is important about Horhn in this election though now is who he will endorse. Personally, I hope he endorses Johnson, but he is a thoughtful man, and I trust he will give it real thought if he hasn't already. I loved his answer to our "what is Jackson's No. 1 issue"? And he answered, "spirit," and then followed it up with an eloquent explanation. He is so right; this problem leads to everything else, and is reflected in the way that the pitchforks come out against people personally in such a vicious, and uninformed way, every election cycle. I believe our city can do better. An era is passed, and it's a good time to just plain over start over on higher ground. We'll be talking a whole lot more about how to do that later. Right now, though, the prayers continues for Mr. Melton.

Author

DonnaLadd

Date

2009-05-06T08:21:56-06:00

ID

146866

Comment

If Horhn endorses either candidate, it will certainly make a huge difference in the runoff. Is Horhn in a position to where he is comfortable endorsing one though? He will have to work with the mayor, regardless of who is elected. It would seem that Horhn has more bargaining power over the endorsement than either Crisler or Harvey. What would make it worth it for Horhn to endorse either?

Author

chip

Date

2009-05-06T08:31:08-06:00

ID

146867

Comment

But Donna, if John Horhn had "come on at the end," he would have also affected those identified as supporting some of the other candidates. This isn't a big political issue that I'm raising - it's one of statistical sampling methods. While the survey the voters' decision very accurately in every other sense, something about John's support was not picked up by this method. (I'm a friend of John H from years back, btw; I know he was articulate and inspiring to a lot of folks who got to know him) I understand that advertising can affect voting patterns - but what we should have seen according to that scenario would be that some of those "undecided" voters following other paths, as well. They didn't. Only John's numbers and the "undecided" numbers were off, and by significant amounts. The survey methodology needs tweaking - what would make it a better model?

Author

footsy

Date

2009-05-06T08:35:11-06:00

ID

146868

Comment

If a DEM would have ranned in ward ONE would crisler be in the runoff? Someone just answer that for me.

Author

NewJackson

Date

2009-05-06T08:35:52-06:00

ID

146871

Comment

footsy, you wrote: "Only John's numbers and the "undecided" numbers were off, and by significant amounts. The survey methodology needs tweaking - what would make it a better model? " Of course his "undecided" numbers in the survey were off from the actual election, because "undecided" was not an option in the election.

Author

chip

Date

2009-05-06T08:38:53-06:00

ID

146873

Comment

Not if they were undecided, footsy. ;-) One would hope that the remarkable money he raised, and those impressive Jim Dollarhide ads, would do something for him in closing days. Otherwise, we'll need Brad to answer further questions. Brad, you out there somewhere? Interesting question, New Jack. It does look like his most staunch turnout was from conservative whites. From a glance, anyway.

Author

DonnaLadd

Date

2009-05-06T08:42:42-06:00

ID

146874

Comment

You'd have to be a really conservative Dem to have a chance at winning, and even then one would probably lose. My guess is Crisler would still be in the runoff. Harvey is a known candidate, and he's not getting a second chance in many NE Jackson minds. Crisler is new, young(ish) and talented: the Army experience could be a plus there as well. Harvey has lingering questions about his dedication to all of Jackson, true or not.

Author

Ironghost

Date

2009-05-06T08:59:32-06:00

ID

146875

Comment

New Jackson- I don't think it would have made a difference to have someone on the Democratic ticket in Ward 1 unless there would have been competition in the Republican race. If the Republican competition was going to drop out (as it happened) there would not have been a need for Ward 1 Republicans to vote in their own primary- regardless of who was in the Democratic primary Now I have theories about what could have made a difference in Ward 1, but that isn't really one of them.

Author

News Junkie

Date

2009-05-06T09:03:24-06:00

ID

146882

Comment

Whats behind the effort to make Harvey Johnson seem contorversial and polarizing. Its also a concerted effort to market crisler as the only candidate for all of Jackson. Just because one side says that a man is "difficult" and the other man crisler is the only candidate we will work with or accept is crazy. I didn't vote for crisler and still wont but i sure aint saying i cant work with him or accept him. Even with the state legislatures implying that they will green light our wants and request only if we vote for anybody but Harvey Johnson. I dont care, we dont need a candidate that tries to make everybody happy. You cant please everybody. I want a candidate who does whats best for Jackson no matter who he upsets in the process. I just feel that Certain elements are trying to make it difficult for Harvey Johnson to get elected by branding him UPPITY to some and stubborn to the rest of us. I rather have a grown man running this city, not a little boy still playing on the playground making freinds by giving away all his toys.

Author

NewJackson

Date

2009-05-06T10:02:41-06:00

ID

146885

Comment

You cant please everyone certainly. Thats nearly impossible. Look at Obama. You may disagree, sure. But there is something to be said for learning to work and respect others. It is something to be said for whoever runs this city that they create a climate where folks feel comfortable investing money in this city. I dont want someone who is automatically going to say NO when you go see him. So the question is which one of them will be that person. Thats the question we all need to be asking. Are you open to new ideas and discussion o those ideas and THEN make a decision or are you gonna say NO right off the bat just to be combative or prove a point?

Author

Kamikaze

Date

2009-05-06T10:25:00-06:00

ID

146889

Comment

kaze you have proved your point, its crisler you want if im right in reading your reply. Has working with the folk downtown given you any insight on the myth of Harvey Johnson.

Author

NewJackson

Date

2009-05-06T10:42:33-06:00

ID

146892

Comment

Some of us who have worked with HJ as mayor have a different picture of the man than some of his ardent supporters. Others here have accurately pointed out his strengths and accomplishments (which are many) as well as his flaws. He's not a bad guy, and I think Jackson will be fine if he ends up mayor again. But if he does I hope he has learned from his mistakes.

Author

Jeff Lucas

Date

2009-05-06T10:55:06-06:00

ID

146901

Comment

New Jack, I didnt say who I was voting for. If you read it correctly I said "what I would LIKE to see" in the next Mayor. HJ says he's learned from his mistakes and is a new person. If thats the caseI dont buy into myths, rumors, innuendo, or the like. I let actions speak for themselves. And actions will prove if either of them are interested in keeping us headed in the right direction. What Ive learned in being a developer now is that there is a really diverse coalition of people who want to see this city move forward. Ive also learned that traditionally this city hasnt had developers that looked like me, my age, my demo, that young folks could look to. I want to be able to pass that on to others. The main thing I learned is that people I had noramlly been against, or suspicious of, were actually pretty above board folks once you have a conversation with them and get to actually KNOW them. Thats the funny thing about actually talking to someone, sometimes it proves you were wrong about them. But when you dont, its much easier to hold on to animosity or hate.

Author

Kamikaze

Date

2009-05-06T12:11:51-06:00