Ellington

Like the nation as a whole, Mississippi can expect to recover from the nationwide economic recession by 2013, according to a report released last week by the state Institutions for Higher Learning. Many economic indicators suggest that the state's economy is beginning to turn around. Mississippi's recovery will lag slightly behind that of other states, however, because its economy relies more on slow-growing, lower-productivity industries.

"Our recovery is pretty well tracking what happens in the rest of the country," said Marianne Hill, a senior economist with the state IHL and lead author of the report. "The recession hit here later because the housing crisis wasn't as bad; the finance industry isn't as important."

The median home price in Mississippi in spring 2009 was only 5 percent below what it was in 2007. Other indicators, like the value of residential building permits, retail sales and gaming revenues are all on the rise.

The state's seasonally adjusted jobless rate has also declined towards the end of 2009, from 9.5 percent in October to 9 percent in November. Still, Hill predicted that unemployment in Mississippi will peak around 10 percent in spring 2010, following national trends. Hill forecast a statewide drop to 8 percent unemployment by 2013 and around 7 percent by 2014.

Overall the state economy is expected to begin growing next year and finally match the national pace of economic growth by 2013. Gross state product fell by 2.5 percent in 2009, but Hill expects it to grow by 1.5 percent in 2010 and 2.6 percent or more in 2012. The state will catch up to the nation later in part because it lacks the high-tech industries that often provide a quicker boost to economic growth.

"It might be the case that we get back to pre-recession employment levels a touch later (than the nation), but one of the big differences between Mississippi and the rest of the country is we don't have the same kind of growth of the labor force," Hill said. "It would be surprising if we didn't lag the rest of the country returning to pre-recession employment levels, because the rest of the country is having a work force that's growing more rapidly.