Ellington

Politico just broke the news that John McCain is giving up on Michigan:

John McCain is pulling out of Michigan, according to two Republicans, a stunning move a month away from Election Day that indicates the difficulty Republicans are having in finding blue states to put in play. McCain will go off TV in Michigan, stop dropping mail there and send most of his staff to more competitive states, including Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida. Wisconsin went for Kerry in 2004, Ohio and Florida for Bush.

Previous Comments

ID

138531

Comment

Josh Marshall blogs that this is an interesting "tell" in the poker sense. I think this is the McCain campaign telling us that they do not believe the latest shift in the race's momentum is temporary. They believe this is the terrain they are going to have to play on for the final four weeks. And that dictates digging in in the 2004 red states and hoping they can pull off wins in every one of those states.

Author

Todd Stauffer

Date

2008-10-02T15:50:17-06:00

ID

138532

Comment

According to most polls (Real Clear Politics, in particular), McCain could win Ohio, Wisconsin AND Florida and STILL LOSE the race to Obama by an electoral vote tally of 296-242. If the election were held today, by RCP's projections, Obama would win 353-185. That said, it'll be interesting to see what movement will follow tonight's debate and what other tricks McCain may concoct. By my count, right now Obama is ahead (and favored to win) in eight states that Bush won in 2004: Ohio-20 EVs, FL-27, NV-5, VA-13, NC-15, CO-9, NM-5 and Iowa-7. That's 81 EVs more than Kerry's 252 in 2004. There'll have to be a whole lotta movement to reverse or seriously stall Obama's upward trend.

Author

Kacy

Date

2008-10-02T16:18:45-06:00

ID

138534

Comment

So far it seems like Ohio and Florida are inside the margin of error for Obama, but, yes, indicators are that it would be a landslide if the election were held today. McCain-Palin has looked *very* bad over the past 168 hours. It's certainly noteworthy that, strategically speaking, McCain is dropping back to defend "red" states and worry less about shifting the battleground. They say he's putting more resources into VA; that means that Obama won't have to defend MI and PA and can spend his time either peeling a Florida orange (which would cement it) or knocking around in the South and West looking for a combo of North Carolina and Nevada. (Hell...Minnesota is open. New Hampshire. Indie-freakin'-Ana.) Obama has so many outs that it's possible he could concede Ohio if it felt either too close or too corrupt to fight over. Or, he could go for the knockout and try to push the McCain camp into WackyLand (where they, quite frankly, may already be) and see if he can get something huge in the next few weeks like campaign staff turnover or a Palin-steps-down scenario. Time will tell.

Author

Todd Stauffer

Date

2008-10-02T16:43:38-06:00

ID

138536

Comment

Agreed, itodd. That's what has McCain grasping at any straw he can, no matter how wacky or strange. I can only wonder what stunt he'll pull tomorrow or next week...or what Palin might say during the next 90 minutes. Remember, it's October! That said, all in all, things are looking pretty good for Obama.

Author

Kacy

Date

2008-10-02T18:49:56-06:00

ID

138573

Comment

The commentors at Michigan Live are eating McCain alive.

Author

golden eagle

Date

2008-10-03T10:18:27-06:00

ID

138581

Comment

Well, he cut and ran from their state. Meantime, the bailout plan Obama pushed has now passed both the House and the Senate.

Author

DonnaLadd

Date

2008-10-03T11:42:38-06:00

ID

138626

Comment

Per one Michigan Republican official, McCain's pullout is a"dumbass stunt."

Author

golden eagle

Date

2008-10-06T08:07:36-06:00