Ellington

The JFP has repeated the T-word incessantly since we launched in 2002. That is, conventional "wisdom" about basing political strategy on who has, and has not, voted in the past goes out the window if you focus on increasing turnout, as well as giving unexcited voters candidates who they will turn out for (doh). This year's election has done that, both nationally and in the state, perhaps changing the way we all view election strategy for years to come. First, the early word on what happened nationally:

By all measures the 2008 turnout rate will most likely top the 60% turnout rate of 2004: primary voting, new registrations, survey respondents' interest in the election, small money donations are all up four years ago. The question is, by how much? If we best the 64% turnout rate in 1960, then we must look all the way back to the 66% turnout rate in 1908 - literally a century of American politics - to find the next highest turnout rate. I think that level of turnout is attainable, and as the election nears I will be able to general relatively accurate predictions of turnout rates from early voting, which from early reports I am tracking appear to be at signficantly higher levels than 2004.

The New York Times reports that the youth vote was up by 2 million.

As for Mississippi, Republican blogger Andy Taggart writes at the Ledger about how this election has turned out at least 100,000 more voters than at anytime in our history. (Almost 200,000 new voters registered this year.) It certainly wasn't enough to turn Mississippi blue, but an interesting phenomenon is that most of Mississippi voter blue-er than in the 2004 election, unlike states immediately around us, which tended to vote redder. See these maps to see what I mean.

The story in Mississippi is that our voters under 30, black and white together, went around 60 percent for Obama, just as they did for Kerry four years ago. We may be behind national trends, but if we stop running our young people off, and create opportunities for them here, our state will continue to evolve into a more progressive state. As it is, over a half million Mississippians voted for an Afircan American president, and that is nothing to sneeze at.

I giddily Twittered last night that Mississippi could be a swing state in four years, but with our nearly 40 percent African American population and an increasing pool of young white progressives, we really could be. The national Dems needs to put more 50-state/GOTV effort here. And the state's Dems need to run true progressives who aren't afraid of their shadow and who didn't cheat on their spouses while they were in the governor's mansion. Just sayin'.

Previous Comments

ID

140382

Comment

Even Karl Rove is impressed at how Obama's new voters changed this election: A candidate can improve his party's performance by getting additional people out to vote and persuading people inclined to support the other party to cross over. The first yields an additional vote; the second is worth two, the one a candidate gets and the one he takes away from his opponent. About Karl Rove Karl Rove served as Senior Advisor to President George W. Bush from 2000–2007 and Deputy Chief of Staff from 2004–2007. At the White House he oversaw the Offices of Strategic Initiatives, Political Affairs, Public Liaison, and Intergovernmental Affairs and was Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy, coordinating the White House policy making process. Before Karl became known as "The Architect" of President Bush's 2000 and 2004 campaigns, he was president of Karl Rove + Company, an Austin-based public affairs firm that worked for Republican candidates, nonpartisan causes, and nonprofit groups. His clients included over 75 Republican U.S. Senate, Congressional and gubernatorial candidates in 24 states, as well as the Moderate Party of Sweden. Karl writes a weekly op-ed for The Wall Street Journal, is a Newsweek columnist and is now writing a book to be published by Simon & Schuster. Email the author at [email protected] or visit him on the web at Rove.com. So the two Davids registered millions of voters in states the Obama campaign picked as battlegrounds, especially where there were many heretofore-disinterested African Americans and younger Democrats. Messrs. Plouffe and Axelrod understood that over the last 28 years only 11 of 20 eligible Americans on average cast a presidential ballot. They focused on registering and motivating the other nine who don't usually vote. This decision, perhaps more than any other, allowed Mr. Obama to win such previously red states as Virginia, Indiana, Colorado and Nevada. It forced Mr. McCain to spend most of the fall on defense, unable to take once-reliably Republican states for granted. Second, Messrs. Plouffe and Axelrod pried away from the GOP ranks small but decisive slices of the Republican presidential coalition. We can't be precise, because for the third election in a row the exit polls were trash. The raw numbers forecast an 18-point Obama win, news organizations who underwrote the poll arbitrarily dialed it down to a 10-point Obama edge, and the actual margin was six. But we do know President-elect Obama ran better among frequent churchgoers (perhaps getting 10 points more than John Kerry did), independents (perhaps five points more than Kerry and eight points more than Al Gore), Hispanics and white men. He even made special appeals to gun owners and sent his wife to cultivate military families. This allowed him to carry previously red states like Florida, New Mexico and Iowa. This combination helped Senator Obama run four points better nationally than John Kerry did in 2004 and 2.5 points better than Al Gore did in 2000. These small changes on the margin meant all the difference between winning and losing. See, Karl, you can win an election by NOT spreading hate and dividing the nation. Imagine that.

Author

DonnaLadd

Date

2008-11-06T17:02:27-06:00