Ellington

The Associated Press is reporting that the GOPmay even be in trouble in Texas in this year's around of elections. Let's just say that Delay country has done an about-face.

Three weeks to the midterm elections, GOP discontent is seeping into the home state of President Bush, where every statewide elected official is a Republican. The state's Republican House members were supposed to be protected from such voter mood swings by the 2003 redrawing of the state's congressional districts, orchestrated by former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay.

But largely because of DeLay, who resigned in June embroiled in scandal, Texas this year unexpectedly is one of the states that could help Democrats wrest control of the House from the GOP this November. Races for three of the state's 32 congressional seats are considered competitive.

No Republican is listed on the ballot in the race for the seat once held by DeLay. That's left Democrat Nick Lampson the favorite against write-in Republican candidate Shelley Sekula-Gibbs.
Democrats hope the congressional page scandal will help push Republican Rep. Henry Bonilla into a runoff against one of his seven challengers for a district stretching from near El Paso to Laredo.
And voter unease also may thwart Republican efforts to seize the Central Texas district that is home to Bush's ranch, a congressional seat now held by Democratic Rep. Chet Edwards.

There is disquiet in the state's gubernatorial race, too, in which incumbent GOP Gov. Rick Perry is polling only in the high 30s against three challengers.

Previous Comments

ID

107893

Comment

I think the hatefest out there is about to play itself out there. Something about sowing the wind...

Author

Ironghost

Date

2006-10-17T20:01:18-06:00

ID

107894

Comment

I think if you look at elections, alot of times in the last 15 years the media missed it in projections. They missed it in 2002. they missed it in 1994. Lest anyone think I'm picking on Dems, the media said Republicans would gain alot after Monicagate and the Republicans were severely disappointed when the returns were counted.

Author

Kingfish

Date

2006-10-17T20:06:52-06:00

ID

107895

Comment

What exactly do you mean by "hatefest," Ironghost? I'm not following you. Kingfish, there is a lot more at stake here than Monicagate, as bad as I personally thought that was. Major corruption, bad wars, dead soldiers, a huge deficit, unbridled government spending, House leadership that doesn't do anything about sexual advances on pages ... there's a bit more on the table this time around. And saying that is not "hate," Ironghost; that is simply reality. Accusing people who want to see bad politicians out of office before they can do more serious damage of being "hateful" is just stupid, assuming that's what you're doing. Hopefully not. I think you're smarter than that.

Author

DonnaLadd

Date

2006-10-17T20:11:34-06:00

ID

107896

Comment

Oh, and I forgot torture and spying on Americans, Kingfish.

Author

DonnaLadd

Date

2006-10-17T20:12:00-06:00

ID

107897

Comment

Oy. So quick to be misjudged. :) I meant the contentious fight over redistricting in Texas, simply. I wasn't refering to anything larger or whatnot. It's always sad when people are reduced to mere pawns in the gears of those who say they rule in our name, but don't.

Author

Ironghost

Date

2006-10-17T20:14:50-06:00

ID

107898

Comment

Only point I'm making is that the media has missed pretty badly on its election prognostications is all over the years. I wouldn't be surprised if the Senate and House stay in Republican hands but are tighter like in 2001 or so. Did you ever read the Mike Royko column YEARS ago where he advised people to lie on exit polls? Two chicago Drive time dj's read it on the air on election day several times and well, the media looked pretty stupid on the air that night as apparently alot of people agreed with it and did what he suggested. I'll see if I can dig it up.

Author

Kingfish

Date

2006-10-17T20:16:32-06:00

ID

107899

Comment

Yep, I see your point, Iron. Sorry if I jumped on it too fast. I just get so tired of people calling critics of the far right "haters." Didn't think you would do that, frankly. Karma may be about to come home to Texas, indeed. Kingfish, I'm certainly not arguing how anything is going to turn out. However, I think one would have to be deaf, dumb and extremely partisan not to see that the Repubs may well be up sh!t creek this year. Actually, exit polls tend to be pretty accurate. They were in 2000, for instance.

Author

DonnaLadd

Date

2006-10-17T20:19:24-06:00

ID

107900

Comment

Other intriguing political news out of Ohio. Fox News reports: U.S. Rep. Sherrod Brown was favored by 53 percent of likely Ohio voters surveyed, compared to 41 percent for DeWine, in The Quinnipiac University Poll.[...] A September Quinnipiac poll had showed the two men neck-and-neck in one of the closest races in the country. As the scandal involving former U.S. Rep. Mark Foley's illicit e-mails to underage pages has unfolded, support for DeWine has slipped among white evangelical Christians, from a 63-27 percent advantage in September to 57-37 percent in the latest poll. The survey included 272 self-described white evangelical Christians, with a margin of error of 5.9 percent for the group. The Democratic candidate showed his biggest gains with independent voters, many of whom had been undecided in September, said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. My personal prognostication is that you should look out for the "independent" voters in some of these races. Even if they stayed home in recent elections because they didn't like either candidates, Republicans are in a much better position to lose protest votes this year, not that all the dirty laundry is airing out and the chickens are coming home to roost, war wise. And don't discount all those folks who are pissed because the party of family values is, uh, turning out not to be.

Author

DonnaLadd

Date

2006-10-17T20:24:20-06:00

ID

107901

Comment

I didn't say they weren't. Just that one time when Royko wrote a column about lying to them. Now THAT was a columnist. I remember one column he wrote about how he had the same number as AT&T's toll free number without the 1-800. He had his for years, ATT had just changed their number. He started getting alot of calls for ATT by people too stupid to dial the toll free part. He complained to ATT and they told him to change his number. He said no, I had mine first. They said sorry, we are ATT and not changing their number. SO he started playing jokes on the callers. If you were a woman, he'd ask you to come turn your phone in as in that area they are no longer allowing women to have phone lines. Another he would say something simalarly outrageous. Then he wrote about it. AT&T was calling up begging for mercy after the second column came out in the paper.

Author

Kingfish

Date

2006-10-17T20:29:22-06:00

ID

107902

Comment

Royko was fun to read. I believe he was in the CL for awhile.

Author

Ironghost

Date

2006-10-17T21:09:18-06:00

ID

107903

Comment

There is another piece in the Times about Ohio. Seventy percent said that both Ohio and the nation were on the wrong track, a number that often spells doom for the party in power. And call me partisan, but I do think it's funny that the Democrats are using a Republican "trick" to boost turnout. The difference, and the reason why it is not ultimately partisan, is that the Democratic measure will actually do something, and it will help people rather than hurt them. More than three-quarters of Ohioans in the poll said they strongly favored a ballot measure to raise the state minimum wage to $6.85 an hour from $5.15 an hour. The ballot measure is backed by labor unions and other Democratic interests and is intended in part to draw Democratic voters to the polls on Election Day, just as measures to outlaw same-sex marriage propelled Republicans to vote in several states two years ago. Speaking of tricks, note this: Only 30 percent of Democratic poll respondents said they believed the 2004 vote count was fair and accurate, while 64 percent said it was not. ... Republicans, by 89 percent to 8 percent, said the voting was fair and balanced. And then there's them chickens: More than half of the poll’s respondents said they believed corruption was widespread in Ohio and said, by a three-to-one ratio, that the Republican Party had more corrupt politicians than the Democrats.

Author

Brian C Johnson

Date

2006-10-17T23:39:57-06:00

ID

107904

Comment

I like this site for keeping up with surveys and how the races are looking. Now I'm going to whinge about something completely different. From Brian's quotation above from the NYT: More than three-quarters of Ohioans in the poll said they strongly favored a ballot measure to raise the state minimum wage to $6.85 an hour from $5.15 an hour. WHEN did the NYT start feeling constrained to always write things like this backwards? It should be "...from $5.15 an hour to $6.85 an hour." What's older comes first. Sorry, pet peeve. Best, Tim

Author

Tim Kynerd

Date

2006-10-18T06:47:19-06:00

ID

107905

Comment

Ah. This is *exactly* what I was talking about in my prognostication on this thread last night. From the Associated Press today: Call them the occasional voters. They mean to take the time and go to the polls, but politics is an afterthought and they never get around to voting. These intermittent voters account for about one in five in the country, according to an Associated Press-Pew poll. These voters share some attributes with more consistent voters. They have the same sense of duty and feel guilty when the election goes by and they didn't vote. Those elements make them a bloc of untapped voters in the Nov. 7 midterm elections, when turnout is critical. Other characteristics of these voters: They are less economically well-off than regular voters, less educated and definitely not as politically savvy. Intermittent voters are less likely to be strong supporters of any party. Only 38 percent of intermittent voters say there is a great deal of difference in what the parties stand for, compared with 47 percent of regular voters. And don't be surprised if these folks are royally p.o.-ed right now. Many have lost loved ones in Iraq, and they're not partisan hacks who vote for their party no matter what. They are the kinds who will likely turn out when they believe the party is going the wrong direction. I'd also guess that they are not part of that 33-percent "base" that supports Bush et al. no matter what they do.

Author

DonnaLadd

Date

2006-10-18T11:47:00-06:00