Ellington

A lobbyist has become the second Republican governor since Reconstruction; the lieutenant governor turned Republican in the middle of her last term; the first new speaker of the house has been elected in 16 years. No matter how strange things seem, they always make perfect sense within the context of Mississippi politics. And now more than one political observer thinks state legislators might start making law along party lines.

But that would come later. After the settling-in days, after the throat-clearing and footing-finding. The parties are over, the moments of uncertainty that reigned as department heads waited to see if they would be axed have relaxed; some new and some controversial appointments have been made; and some people appointed by outgoing Gov. Ronnie Musgrove.

Activists, advocates and special-interest groups are planning their strategies. The anticipation is palpable as all wait to see how this new group—Gov. Haley Barbour, Lt. Gov. Amy Tuck, Speaker of the House Billy McCoy, House President Pro Tempore John Compretta and Senate Pro Tempore re-elect Travis Little—will gel. All await to see how this new body will lean, after the big-business-minded Legislature that some Mississippians believe gave away the state for a Nissan plant. Hope is tentative that things might get better for the poor, for the struggling. The possibility for progress prickles. Disappointment is inevitable.

During the opening days of the 2004 legislative session, history rubbed shoulders with the future as longtime lawmaker Robert George Clark Jr. walked slowly from the Capitol where he had just watched his son take his oath of office, as if he were reluctant to leave this place where he has spent so much time. The first African American elected to the Mississippi House since Reconstruction, Clark had served since 1967, and had the courage to fight the righteous battles. Now, the newly retired House speaker pro tem passes the torch to his son, Bryant Clark, one of 27 new House members. And there will be 14, maybe 15 new senators. (The District 29 Senate seat has been contested.)

STRIPES AND SPOTS
In the poorest state in the nation, where half the residents are functionally illiterate, jobs, education and health care are certainly primary issues for this body, but how lawmakers will fund them is the crucial question. This new Legislature will have to deal with the same old problem: an impossibly tight budget.

Marty Wiseman, director of the John C. Stennis Institute of Government, thinks distinct party lines will emerge, and he expects legislators to make law along those lines. While Mississippi voters have always lined up behind Republicans or Democrats, with race being a major determining factor, Wiseman said that Mississippi legislators have generally "just treated each other like lawmakers."
Now their stripes and spots might show as lawmakers divide along party lines over two issues: revenue (how it will be raised and spent), and tort reform "with most of the Democrats against tort reform and most of the Republicans for it," he said.

Tort reform was a main plank of Barbour's platform, and Tuck immediately got to the issue in the Senate this session by splitting the Judiciary Committee into A and B (civil and criminal) committees, as they are in the House. She said it would ease the workload, but the division into civil and criminal justice could clearly make tort reform easier. Big businesses, which traditionally support Republicans, don't want to pay off big civil awards, and some of the lawyers who try those big-award cases support Democrats.

DEAL-MAKING, DEAL-BREAKING
The third component that will further complicate things as the two parties emerge is the Mississippi Legislative Black Caucus, which Wiseman says has positioned itself to be a powerhouse deal-making, deal-breaking coalition. "If they can keep their in-fighting to a minimum," he said. "they will be in a very strong position to get what they want."

In the past, the caucus has proved savvy, and might be in an even more advantageous position this session. While the caucus is usually mostly made up of mostly Democrats, nothing prevents them from making deals with Republicans, and even the threat of that works to their advantage, Wiseman said.

In the opening days of the legislative session, Tuck urged lawmakers to work together across party lines, and everyone agrees Mississippi lawmakers need to focus on the state's unique problems, but Wiseman fears that national Democratic and Republican agendas could dictate decisions here, at a particularly bad time for outside influence.

"I think you're going to start seeing a lot more loyalty among party members," he said. "I think they will start cutting deals to get the things that they want; Democrats will start acting like Democrats, and Republicans will start acting like Republicans."

LIKE A DARK CLOUD
Lawmakers will probably not get around to the budget, looming like a dark cloud, until March. Barbour will have to submit his budget by Jan. 31. He and other lawmakers estimate a $700 million deficit in the $3.5 billion general revenue fund. The Legislative Budget Committee has already recommended cuts to accommodate that shortfall.

For the past three years, the state's anemic economy and other factors have forced lawmakers to rake, scrape, rob and borrow to plug holes in stopgap measures that some say will not work this session. Lawmakers are going to have to come up with some money, and even then some programs will be hit hard; the question is which and how hard.

Rep. Cecil Brown, D-Jackson, says this year will be easier because lawmakers will only have to consider a one-year budget instead of two as they did last session.

But Wiseman said every day of this 120-day session—30 more than usual, is needed to deal with this budget, and the Appropriations Committee appointments in both the House and Senate will be key. One of them may be historic, if the first African American—possibly Rep. Percy Watson, D-Hattiesburg—is appointed.

"These are the guys who will have to look under every rock and in every cranny to find money," he said.

The Legislative Budget Committee has proposed a $200 million cut to secondary education and a $72 million cut to higher education, but some lawmakers say education is safe. "I think we'll fund education across the board," Brown said.

TAXING SIN
Wiseman suggests lawmakers look at exemptions and "sin" taxes. "They say the power to tax is the power to destroy," he said. "You would think that in the Bible Belt, they (lawmakers) would look at raising taxes on sin—on things like cigarettes."

But Barbour said during his pre-inaugural jaunt through the southern part of the state that he is "against raising anybody's taxes," including those on cigarettes.

Lawmakers will probably divert funding from one source to another to plug holes as they did with tobacco money last session to help cover health care, and "if we have to cut some other agencies," Brown said, "we'll just have to cut them."

Those kind of vague references to agency cuts worry Rims Barber, a social and civil rights activist in Jackson. He is concerned about the poor and struggling families, particularly since Barbour has announced the appointment of Don Taylor to the Department of Human Services. Taylor was controversial when he headed the massive, troubled agency during the Fordice administration.

"Don Taylor is an insult," Barber said. "It's obvious that the governor doesn't think he owes poor people anything by the way he's making appointments." Taylor was criticized for his micromanagement style and his stinginess with money to poor people.

But Wiseman says Taylor is an "effective administrator," and that he might have to take a "different approach" than he used during the Fordice regime. During his campaign, Barbour promised to bring in jobs and to respect the laws of education reform. His people, Wiseman reasons, are supposed to make policy that respects that.

Barber is not buying it, and he also believes that Taylor will be detrimental to resolving the issues with juvenile facilities that the U.S. Department of Justice has raised.
"Taylor is the architect of those programs at Oakley and Columbia that the Justice Department is up in arms about," he said. "[His appointment] will be a problem in negotiating with the Justice Department."

When Tuck split the Judiciary Committee, the Juvenile Justice Committee was eliminated, and some are worried that the juvenile justice system won't be given the much-needed attention it deserves.

NICKELED AND DIMED
Medicaid is one of the most complex and politically charged issues knotting up the budget. The Medicaid funding shortfall is $90 million, according to Francis Rullan, public relations director for Medicaid. But he is reluctant to use that figure because the medical needs of poor people are always changing, and a figure that covered those needs last year might not cover them this year.
Rullan said that Medicaid is an indicator of the health of a society and is affected by a number of factors, including poverty and the particular challenges each family that uses Medicaid faces. Too many other issues dictate what Medicaid has to try to provide. When these needs are not taken care of—proper education, for instance, or too few good jobs—then "Medicaid gets yelled at because we didn't fix poverty."

Medicaid does not work in a vacuum, Barber says, and most benefits for poor and working-class families are probably in grave danger. But Medicaid should get particular consideration, Barber adds, pointing out that critics of the program overlook the fact that it not only provides benefits, but provides jobs as well.

Barber agrees with others who think lawmakers should look at an increase on cigarette taxes to help raise the money to fund Medicaid. "You can't nickel and dime the kind of money this budget needs."
If lawmakers don't take drastic measures to raise money for Medicaid and other programs for the struggling, Barber predicts "people are going to be out in the streets." The new governor said during the press conference where he named Wallace Conerly interim director of Medicaid that he was committed to providing health care for the poor, but in a cost-effective manner.

Everyone seems to know exactly what should be done, but no one knows how to do it, which means anything can and probably will happen.

Says Wiseman: "It's going to be something to watch."