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Saints Still Alive For The Playoffs

Normally at 1-3 heading into their bye week, you would think the New Orleans Saints’ season would be over. Since the playoff format changed in 1990, http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2017-nfl-playoff-picture-afc-nfc-teams-thatd-be-in-if-postseason-started-today/">only 14 percent of 1-3 teams have made the playoffs. That number works out to 183 teams. Last season, the http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/17708074/ranking-1-3-nfl-teams-most-likely-turn-2016-playoffs">Houston Texans and the Kansas City Chiefs made the playoffs after a 1-3 start.

Remember, I said normally. This season, http://www.espn.com/nfl/standings">13 teams in the league currently have a 1-3 record. That is nearly half the league, and if you add teams that are 2-2, that number balloons to 18 teams.

Currently only 14 have a winning record, and only three are still undefeated. Except for the 3-1 Atlanta Falcons, every team in the NFC South has a 1-3 record like the Saints.

New Orleans still has http://www.espn.com/nfl/team/schedule/_/name/no">seven 1-3 teams left on the schedule, including the both, Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers twice. The Saints also play the .500 Kansas City Chiefs for eight games against teams .500 or under at this point in the season.

That leaves four teams with a winning record on the schedule. Those teams are the undefeated Denver Broncos and three teams at 3-1 in the Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams and Atlanta Falcons.

If the Saints beat all the teams at .500 or below left on their schedule, they would finish 9-7 on the season. Right now in the NFC, nine teams that have a .500 record are worse.

Unless the 3-1 Falcons run away with the NFC South, chances are, the Saints are still alive in their division. The Carolina Panthers, last year’s Super Bowl loser who are also at 1-3, could come back, as well, to take the NFC South.

I know what you're thinking: How can the Saints still have any playoff chance with their defense? It’s true that New Orleans has the http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/sort/totalPointsPerGame/position/defense">32nd ranked defense with 32.5 points per game.

But the rest of the http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/17722642/nfl-2016-adam-schefter-chris-mortensen-week-5-notebook-dallas-cowboys-start-dak-prescott-tony-romo">NFC South isn’t much better. Tampa Bay is 31st with 32 points per game, Atlanta is 29th with 31 points per game, and Carolina is 28th with 29.5 points per game.

The Saints have the http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/sort/totalPointsPerGame">fourth-ranked offense with 28.5 points per game. Atlanta has the best offense in the league at 38 points per game, Carolina is sixth with 27.3 points per game, and Tampa Bay is 25th with 19.3 points per game.

Let’s look at this as a glass-half-full situation. New Orleans has been this bad on defense with an extreme number of injuries. The Saints, in theory, should get better on defense as the season goes along, and they begin to see defensive player return.

There is hope for the defense if it can get players back and play like it did in the http://www.espn.com/nfl/recap/_/gameId/400874672">second half against the Chargers. New Orleans outscored San Diego 21-10 in the second half and forced timely turnovers.

Right now, http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/givetake">New Orleans is plus one in turnover margin after forcing five fumbles and one interception. The Saints have turned the ball over five times with three interceptions and three fumbles.

If the Saints’ secondary can get healthy, this team has a chance to win games.

New Orleans has three-quarters of the season left to play, and there is a chance that they can turn the ship around.

The next four games will be the key. New Orleans hosts Carolina and Seattle and plays at Kansas City and San Francisco. The Panthers are 1-3, the Chiefs are 2-2, and the 49ers are 1-3, and all three games should be winnable. At 3-1, Seattle will be the toughest game in that stretch.

If New Orleans can go 3-1 over those four games, the team would be back to .500 at 4-4 and in the mix for the playoffs. The next four games include a home game against Denver, away to Carolina, and home games against Los Angeles and Detroit.

Another 3-1 mark with a loss to the Broncos gets the Saints to 7-5 and a chance to be in the mix over the last four games. Those final games include a home and away against the Buccaneers, a trip to Arizona and a trip to Atlanta.

The Saints get the Seahawks, Broncos and Rams at home. If the Superdome can become the home-field advantage it has been in the past, New Orleans can definitely play with those teams and even sneak up and beat one or two of them.

New Orleans just has to get back to .500 after coming back from its bye week. If the team can do that, it should be in the playoff mix down the stretch.

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