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Drafting a Quarterback is Crapshoot: Part Two

The first part of this story looked at NFL teams drafting quarterbacks from 1998 to 2007. This second one will look at quarterbacks drafted from 2008 to 2015 and some interesting numbers behind these draft picks.

Two quarterbacks were picked in the first round of the 2008 NFL Draft. Matt Ryan, who the Atlanta Falcons selected first overall, is currently in the midst of a solid career. But he hasn’t had postseason success, which downgrades him, in my eyes.

The Baltimore Ravens picked quarterback Joe Flacco in the first round in 2008. He has a Super Bowl win but was able to overcome early struggles as a young player thanks to a dominant defense.

There is no question that Ryan and Flacco are franchise quarterbacks. The other 11 of the 13 quarterbacks drafted in 2008 didn’t amount to much. Chad Henne got some run in Miami, but he wasn’t the answer. Green Bay took Matt Flynn—no relation—in the seventh round, and he became the king at cashing in for performances in meaningless late-season games. Flynn signed big contracts but could never become “the man” when he left the Packers.

Three quarterbacks were drafted in the first round of the 2009 draft. All three have had slightly different careers.

Matthew Stafford, who the Detroit Lions drafted first overall, is a solid starter. He has some gunslinger in him, and the Lions haven’t been able to put things together around him enough to succeed at a high level—but he is a franchise quarterback.

Mark Sanchez, who the New York Jets drafted fifth overall, was supposed to be the answer for the club’s quarterback woes. Instead, Sanchez is known for his butt fumble and moving from New York to the Philadelphia Eagles to the Denver Broncos, where he currently is.

Sanchez had early success behind a great Jets defense but more recently has proved to be stopgap for teams looking for a franchise quarterback or a backup. He could have had success in 2016 with that dominant Denver defense.

Tampa Bay drafted Josh Freeman with the 17th overall pick, and it looked like he was going to become a longtime starter in the league. He had two solid seasons in his first four years, but the wheels came off at the start of the 2013 season, when he couldn’t complete a pass. Tampa Bay released him, and he signed with Minnesota.

Things didn’t go any better for Freeman in Minnesota and he was out of the league except for a guest spot in one game in 2015 for the quarterback injury that plagued Indianapolis Colts.

Eleven total quarterbacks were selected in the 2009 NFL Draft, and the rest had limited success. The Colts selected Curtis Painter in the seventh round, and he sat behind Peyton Manning until his neck injury forced him to miss the 2011 season. The Colts turned to Painter and went 2-14 in a disastrous season.

Sam Bradford was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, but most of the talk in the run up to the draft was spent on Tim Tebow, who the Denver Broncos selected with the 22nd overall pick.

Bradford’s time in the NFL has been marked with injuries and being traded to the Eagles. Tebow had one season of comebacks and a great playoff game against the Pittsburgh Steelers but is now out of the league.

There were 13 quarterbacks selected in 2010, but only Jimmy Clausen and Colt McCoy saw any extended playing time. Clausen lost his job to Cam Newton the next year, and McCoy is a member of the revolving-door-quarterback club in Cleveland.

The 2011 draft was the last draft quarterbacks and rookies could cash in on first round status as the rookie wage scale became part of the new CBA. This draft saw Cam Newton go No. 1 to the Carolina Panthers, and he led the club to the Super Bowl this past season.

Newton was one of four quarterbacks taken in the first round. Other quarterbacks selected, Jake Locker, who the Tennessee Titans selected eighth overall, Blaine Gabbert, who the Jacksonville Jaguars selected 10th, and Christian Ponder, who the Minnesota Vikings selected 11th, flamed out rather quickly.

Andy Dalton, who the Cincinnati Bengals selected in the second round, is a solid starter and has led the club to the playoffs each year he has been with the team. Other notable quarterbacks are T.J. Yates, who won the Houston Texans' first playoff game by beating Dalton and Tyrod Taylor, became the Buffalo Bills' starter in 2015 after the Baltimore Ravens drafted him.

The 2012 quarterback class is one of the more interesting classes in recent memory. Seven of the quarterbacks taken have started at least one season for a team.

Andrew Luck was the first player taken overall and has started his career well expect for an injury filled 2015 year. Robert Griffin III looked like the new star in Washington, after being selected second overall, but is now in Cleveland after fizzling out in D.C. after a knee injury and a coaching change.

Ryan Tannehill, who the Miami Dolphins selected eighth overall, has been the starter most of his time with the club. Brandon Weeden, who the Cleveland Browns selected 22nd overall, was a one-year starter and is now bouncing around the league.

The best quarterback taken in the 2012 draft has been Russell Wilson, who the Seattle Seahawks drafted in third round. He has taken the club to two Super Bowls and won one of those games by beating Peyton Manning. Wilson was able to play right way because the team had a strong running game and a great defense.

The Eagles selected Nick Foles in the third round, and he has bounced around as the Eagles and after a trade with the St. Louis Rams' starting quarterback. Washington drafted Kirk Cousins the same year the team made RG3, the second overall pick has replaced him as the starter with the club.

Second-round pick Brock Osweiler of the Denver Broncos made a few starts for Peyton Manning in his final season and cashed in big with the Houston Texans in free agency. There is a small sample size for Osweiler, so 2016 will be important for him to prove he was worth the big bucks.

Normally it takes three to four years to be sure a quarterback is going to pan out. The jury is still out on the draft classes of 2013 to 2015, but we can make some observations.

Three quarterbacks in the 2013 class have started at least one season. EJ Manuel, Geno Smith and Mike Glennon aren’t tearing up the league.

Smith is better known for getting his jaw broken in a fight with a teammate than his play for the Jets. Manuel lost his job to Tyrod Taylor in Buffalo and Glennon lost his job when Tampa Bay drafted Jameis Winston in 2015.

Three starters have emerged from the 2014 draft class in Blake Bortles, who the Jacksonville Jaguars selected third overall, Teddy Bridgewater, who the Minnesota Viking selected 32nd overall, and David Carr, who the Oakland Raiders selected in the second round.

Johnny Manziel, who the Browns selected in the first round, looks like he wants to party more than be a football player. He is on the verge of being a bust if he doesn't turn his career around quickly.

Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota were selected as the top two picks by Tampa Bay and the Tennessee Titans. There is too small of a sample size to make any judgements by this draft class.

Here are some numbers to think about before this year’s draft.

In every draft since 1998, teams have selected a total of 49 quarterbacks in the first round. From 1998 to 2011 (we are excluding the 2012-2015 seasons due to small sample size) just 19 of the 38 quarterbacks have started for any club five or more years.

That doesn’t mean everyone was a superstar quarterback, only that they had a solid career. While both Mannings, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers and Flacco have won Super Bowls, this list includes Chad Pennington, Michael Vick, Joey Harrington and Carson Palmer as well.

Only 20 quarterbacks have been taken from the second round in the years selected. The second round has the most years no quarterbacks were taken with five.

From 1998 to 2011, teams picked 16 quarterbacks in the second round. Only Drew Brees and Andy Dalton have started five years or more over time. The least amount of quarterbacks have been taken in the second round.

In the third round, 23 quarterbacks have been selected from 1998 to 2015. Of those 23, there have been 18 quarterbacks selected from 1998-2011, but only two have had a career of five or more years—Matt Schaub and Brian Griese. The third round is tied with the fifth, sixth and seventh with having only three years from 1998 to 2015 without a player selected.

The fourth round is the round, behind the second, with the second in non-selections of quarterbacks with four drafts without a quarterback selected and 23 quarterbacks taken from 1998 to 2015. Only three of the 15 quarterbacks taken from those selected years have had more than five years as a starter in Kyle Orton, David Garrard and Aaron Brooks.

The fifth round has a crazy stat. Twenty-nine quarterbacks overall were picked in the fifth round over our time period. That leaves 25 who have the ability to have played five or more years in the league as a starter, and none of the 25 had a career.

In fact, only one player, AJ Freely, was the starter for even a single season. The fifth round of the draft is where quarterback careers go to die.

The final two rounds of the draft, the sixth and seventh rounds, are when NFL teams take a flier on a quarterback. A combined 73 have been taken in the final two rounds of the draft from 1998 to 2015.

Sixty quarterbacks were selected from the final two rounds of the draft from 1998 to 2011. But only five from both rounds have had a career last five or more as a starter—Matt Hasselbeck, Tom Brady, Marc Bulger from the sixth round and Matt Cassel and Ryan Fitzpatrick from the seventh round.

Brady and Bulger in the same draft in 2000, and Cassel and Fitzpatrick both came from the 2005 draft class.

From the second round to the fifth round, 95 players have been drafted from 1998 to 2011. Only seven have started five or more years. That is 22 more players in the second through fifth than the sixth and seventh, but only two more starters.

First-round picks get more opportunities to play and become stars. Money is the biggest reason. The rest of the quarterbacks are left to flounder because of the attention first-round players receive from teams.

This is one of the reasons, along with the new CBA, that teams stink at developing quarterbacks. Which in turn is why half the league doesn’t have a franchise quarterback.

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