August 24, 2016
It's convenient to presume that Mississippi will bleed red on Election Day, but if that's true, then a fair question follows. Why would Donald Trump waste time and resources stopping in Jackson, Miss., this evening for a $1,000 per ticket fundraiser and rally?
Polling done in Mississippi this presidential year might help explain why. http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/MS316Poll.pdf">An April Mason-Dixon poll only favored Trump to Hillary Clinton by three percentage points, a slim margin for a candidate who won the primary election in Mississippi with an 11-point advantage over Ted Cruz, http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/04/mississippi-poll-2016-clinton-trump-221572">Politico reports. A http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/MagellanBR-YP_Poll_Toplines_081616.pdf">second poll, conducted by Magellan Strategies and commissioned by Y'all Politics, revealed a larger gap between the two candidates, with Trump leading by 13 percentage points.
One question in the Magellan poll gave Mississippians three options: Trump, Clinton or Undecided. Fifty-four percent chose Trump; 39 percent chose Clinton; and 7 percent were undecided.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/mississippi/">FiveThirtyEight gives Clinton only a 14-percent chance of winning Mississippi's six electoral votes, but that number is a result of the weighted analysis of only two polls: the Mason-Dixon and Magellan polls.
November has the potential to be a competitive election, depending on which poll you believe, and as http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/Trump-Hillary-Mississippi-Presidential/2016/04/05/id/722382/">NewsMax pointed out: "The last time a Democrat presidential candidate won the state was Jimmy Carter in 1976," but it's likely too early to confidently project a solid winner.
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